The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has increased uncertainty in the market, with potential consequences for millions of people. While the assumption is that the response will be tougher sanctions, the major unknown is how the Ukrainians and the Western powers will react. The crisis has broader implications beyond emerging markets, particularly for Europe's reliance on Russian energy.

The stock market has a good record of predicting the outcome of US presidential elections. However, this time around, the signals are mixed, with many investors turning to alternative methods of forecasting the election outcome. While the S&P 500 Index has gone up around 4% since August, suggesting a Trump victory, Trump’s chance of winning re-election was only 35% on 27th October. Regardless of who wins the presidential election, investors should focus on diversification and adopt a long-term investment strategy that aligns with their risk tolerance and financial goals.