The current economic cycle is proving to be particularly challenging to categorise, with unique circumstances creating a two-speed economy. Depending on which economic indicators are examined, the US economy could be categorised as being in any one of the business cycle’s four phases. The unemployment rate is at a multi-decade low, suggesting an economy in its expansion phase, but other indicators such as business surveys and the rate of change in inflation suggest an economy already experiencing stagflation.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has increased uncertainty in the market, with potential consequences for millions of people. While the assumption is that the response will be tougher sanctions, the major unknown is how the Ukrainians and the Western powers will react. The crisis has broader implications beyond emerging markets, particularly for Europe's reliance on Russian energy.